TODAY: August NODX up 31%

August NODX up 31%
by Ephraim Seow Siew Lee | Sep 18

SINGAPORE - Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) surged last month by the most in nearly five years, driven by shipments of pharmaceuticals and electronics.

International Enterprise (IE) Singapore, said NODX grew 31.2 per cent last month compared to August last year, up from the revised 18.3 per cent increase in July. The stellar performance was the best since Dec 2005. On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, August NODX rose 10 per cent, reversing the negative trend of the past three months. In July, NODX fell 3.9 per cent from the previous month.

To read the complete article, please visit http://www.todayonline.com

TODAY: Property expert says prices may collapse by up to 50 per cent in the next year or two

30, 40, 50% drop?! That sounds a little preposterous and plucked from the sky...but who am I to argue with an expert.
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Property expert says prices may collapse by up to 50 per cent in the next year or two

by Ephraim Seow Siew Lee | Sep 17

The dizzying rise in property prices here is not sustainable and the market may be heading for a hard landing in one to two years' time.

When that happens, property values may fall by as much as 50 per cent, according to an expert at a real estate forum yesterday.

Property experts speaking at the National University of Singapore's Institute of Real Estate Studies Forum said that excess liquidity in the market is the main factor that has been driving up property prices recently.

This liquidity may originate from prudent savings during the financial crisis, gains from the stock market run-up last year and foreign funds flowing here in search of better returns in Asian and emerging markets.

Mr Beat Lenherr, global chief strategist of LGT Capital Management, said: "I think that the money is finding a way around specific pointed measures and the money is just going to all the segments, micro-markets or micro-sectors."

Mr Lenherr also reckoned that the recent rally is not well supported and has been too fast, paving for a harder fall.

"If you look at the developments over the last four years, you clearly see elements of exaggerations where it doesn't make sense to buy in terms of rental yields or expected capital gains," Mr Lenherr added.

As such, he said property prices may "collapse by 30, 40 or 50 per cent" in the next one to two years.

Other speakers at the forum also said that the Singapore Government is still holding back on several other drastic measures such as the capital gains tax, which could dampen the property market abruptly if introduced.

They said the Government has so far been successful in building good neighbourhoods and community in its housing policies beyond controlling prices.

"I think the local market has been kept quite steady. I think the Government can indeed take pride in being able to making available affordable housing to more than 70 or 85 per cent of the masses," said Professor Bernard Yeung, Dean of NUS Business School.

TODAY: Improved economy, one of the factors for property prices?

So, we can expect higher psf, smaller units and smaller quantum going forward...

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Improved economy, one of the factors for property prices?

by Rachel Adrienne Kelly | Sep 17

SINGAPORE - The recent property-cooling measures are not likely to have a significant long-term impact on the overall real estate market in Singapore, with global economic issues playing a larger role, property experts speaking at an industry seminar said yesterday.

"Generally, the property price is affected by external factors or the growth of the Singapore property prices is because of the improved economy. People's incomes increase, people's wealth increase, that's why they are buying," said Mr Alfred Chia, chief executive of SingCapital, at a forum organized by Propertyguru.com.

However, the Aug 30 property cooling measures are expected to reduce the cash-over-valuation (COV) of HDB resale flats and they will put a damper on demand for the rest of the year.

Market-watchers at the event expect COVs to decline by 10-per-cent this year from current levels, with a further 10 per cent drop next year.

Meanwhile, smaller properties are expected to be at a relative advantage.

"For people with a housing loan and on a tighter budget, they will have to lower their budget to buy another property," said Ms Chua Chor Hoon, head of Research, South East Asia at DTZ.

"That means if originally they were looking at a $1 million house, now they will have to look at something between $500,000 and $750,000 so you will see a shift in demand to smaller units," she added.

While the market adjusts to the new measures, the volume of mass market property sold is expected to decline by 10 per cent from now until the end of the year, according to some analysts' estimates.

No impact is expected in the high-end property market.

SIBOR drops to record 0.51%

This means cheap mortgage for home buyers, greater return for landlords, but dismal returns for cash holders.

My view is that it is as good as it gets...the rates can't really go much lower from here. The important question is how long this will last? Every Asian governments knows that we have a liquidity bubble going on here which is fueling asset price (specifically real estate, since other assets seem to be under performing).

Measures to dampen the property market have so far only a muted effect on prices but this could be the soft landing we are all hoping for.

CNA: Rental rates set to rise with 80,000 foreigners

Totally agree, rental units are being snapped up very quickly and at close to asking rent.
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CNA: Rental rates in the private property market are poised to rise with the expected influx of some 80,000 foreign workers this year. Analysts said this is because of the shortage of private housing. And the supply situation may not improve this year as only 5,000 private housing units are expected for completion by year's end.

Read more at http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/1081453/1/.html

BT: 80.4% of Aug developer sales still over $1,000 psf

BT: 80.4% of Aug developer sales still over $1,000 psf

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

An analysis of developers' monthly sales information released yesterday by the government showed that 80.4 per cent of the 1,248 private homes sold in August were priced above $1,000 per square foot (psf).

This is the second month running that the share of this price band has surpassed 80 per cent. In July, 84.7 per cent of the 1,549 homes sold by developers were above $1,000 psf, according to an analysis by Colliers International. Market watchers suggest this pattern is being caused by the popularity of small-format apartments as well as more transactions in the high-end segment. 

Information released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) yesterday showed that developers sold a higher-than-expected 1,248 private homes (excluding executive condos) in August as buyers brushed aside taboos about the Hungry Ghosts Month in the face of strong market sentiment at the time. 

The figure, however, was 19.4 per cent below the previous month's and takes developers' sales in the first eight months of this year to 11,190 units, following last year's strong sales of 14,688 units.

Most analysts expect sales to slow for the September-to-December period, on the back of the property market-cooling measures announced on Aug 30. However, with the strong sales already chalked up between January and August, the full-year tally could still come in at around 14,000 units, they say.

Colliers director for research and advisory Tay Huey Ying pointed to signs of confidence returning to the higher-end market, with the number of new units sold above $1,500 psf increasing 81 per cent month on month from 175 units in July to 317 in August.

The most expensive transaction last month was $3,434 psf for a unit at the Orchard View development at Angullia Park, followed by $3,159 psf at The Laurels on Cairnhill Road, and $3,133 psf at Tomlinson Heights, being developed by Hotel Properties Ltd on the former Beverly Mai site.

CBRE Research noted that a whole suite of projects with shoebox units was launched in August - including Centra Suites (62 units sold), Suites @ Topaz (41 units), Dorsett Residences (35 sales), Studios @ Tembeling (22 units) and Opal Suites (19 units), all with a median price of between $1,200 psf and $1,750 psf. In addition, the top two selling projects for August - The Greenwich in the Seletar Hills area (207 units sold at a median price of $1,095 psf) and Viva Vista on South Buona Road (139 units at a $1,509 psf median price) - have a substantial number of smallish units and set benchmark prices for their respective locations.

URA's statistics also revealed that 35 units in Dorsett Residences above Outram MRT Station were transacted in August at a median price of $1,749 psf - contrary to the project's marketing agent Knight Frank's earlier news release that all 68 apartments in the project were sold out at its preview on Sept 1. The firm yesterday clarified that it brokered the sale of 34 units for which options were issued on Aug 31, inclusive of 30 units sold to a Singapore-registered company. The balance of units in the project were sold on Sept 1.

Property consultants expect developer sales to be clipped in September following the cooling measures. PropNex predicts 700 to 850 units could be sold this month, followed by perhaps 500 to 800 units per month for the fourth quarter. Colliers is predicting average monthly sales of about 800 units per month for the last four months of this year. Most consultants reckon full-year sales are likely to be of the order of about 14,000 units.

The jury is still out on the extent of impact of the latest cooling measures on prices. Says DTZ SE Asia head of research Chua Chor Hoon: 'Whether developers are unsure, pessimistic or optimistic about the impact of the measures, if they choose to proceed with launches, they're unlikely to push for new benchmark pricing levels. They will either price the same as before or slightly lower to entice buyers.'

The Core Central Region accounted for only 12.4 per cent or 155 units of the 1,248 units sold in August with the Rest of Central Region and Outside Central Region each having roughly equal split at 546 and 547 units respectively.

Developers launched a total of 1,326 units in August, a tad lower than the 1,336 units for July. Market watchers note that the ratio of units sold to units launched eased from 1.16 in July to 0.94 in August.

TODAY: Hungry Ghost month fails to spook buyers

Hungry Ghost month fails to spook buyers
by Ephraim Seow | Sep 16

SINGAPORE - The Singapore housing market was well and alive during the Hungry Ghost Month as demand for new private homes continued to be strong in the month of August, with sales staying above the 1,000 level.

Latest figures from the Urban Redevelopment Authority revealed 1,248 units were sold last month, a 19-per-cent dip from the 1,549 sold in July.

In total, 1,326 units were launched in August with buyers snapping up 94 per cent of the new units launched.

Traditionally, demand for homes are more sluggish during the Hungry Ghost Month. The Government's package of anti-speculation measures, however, had come on the second-last day of August, meaning market watchers would have to wait another month before confirming its impact on market sentiment.

The strong sale was well beyond analyst expectations of 500 to 800 units and brought the number of new homes sold in the first eight months of this year to 11,381 units.

"There is a lot of liquidity out there and a lack of financial investment alternatives with the low interest rates," said Ms Chua Chor Hoon, senior director of research at property consultancy DTZ.

She added many still see property as a safe haven, citing its potential for capital appreciation and rental yield of 3 to 3.5 per cent - higher than savings and housing loan rates.

The hottest development last month was The Greenwich at Yio Chu Kang and Seletar Road, which sold 207 units for a median price of $1,095 per square foot (psf). The units ranged from 616 square feet (sq ft) to 738 sq ft.

Viva Vista at South Buona Vista Road came in second as it sold 139 units of between 334 sq ft and 485 sq ft. at the median price of $1,509 psf.

"Their attraction lies in the affordable price quantum as well as proximity to major transport nodes," said Mr Li Hiaw Ho, executive director, CBRE Research.

Property consultancy Jones Lang LaSalle said the Core Central Region remained the quietest despite the 406 units launched by developers to stir up the market. Only 155 units from Core Central Region were sold there. This is much lower than the 1,093 units sold in both the Rest of Central Region and Outside Central Region.

Market experts said the latest URA figures showed escalating prices, where 88.2 per cent of units sold had a median per square foot price of over $1,000.

However, looking ahead, observers expect the recent cooling measures by the government to impact buying sentiments. Jones Lang LaSalle estimates September private home sales to contract 30 to 35 per cent on-month as the policy takes effect.

"Although the full quarter numbers have not been released, we estimate resale volume (for all residential properties excluding executive condominium) in the third quarter could decline by 20 to 25 per cent quarter-on-quarter or 25 to 35 per cent year-on-year," said Dr Chua Yang Liang, Head of Research South-east Asia at Jones Lang LaSalle.