Friday, June 25, 2010

No wonder MM Lee don't think a property bubble is forming

Recent Singapore economic data like manufacturing jumping 58.6% yoy and Q1 GDP of 15.5% and a projection of 16 to 20% for Q2. And a revision of GDP for this year to between 7 and 9% points to a robust growth.

In addition, consumer confidence is the highest in two years and incomes stronger than expected in recent surveys in the US all points to a relatively robust recovery.

But wait, all those are past data, all in the rear view mirror. Looking forward, the winding down of economic stimulus, attacks on governments with weakened debt situation, asset bubbles fueled by cheap money and black swan events are putting the lid on investor

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Up or Down?

Increasingly there is more and more voices joining in the chorus of prediction for the property market.

Lately, analysts from Moody's say that charting the property price and GDP shows that prices are in line with growth, yet some people thinks that prices have run up too fast (recall the record setting price for the Sentosa Cove bungalow)

Even bankers have divergent views, some saying asset bubbles are forming across Asia while others say their loan book is strong.

Personally, I'm a chart person, what was previously at a peak can go higher and watch out for parabolic rise just like the '97 peak. Recently prices have plateaued, building a base for the next leg up? Correction? Love to hear your thoughts.